自然科学版 英文版
自然科学版 英文版
自然科学版 英文版

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中南大学学报(英文版)

Journal of Central South University

Vol. 22    No. 8    August 2015

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Developing energy forecasting model using hybrid artificial intelligence method
Shahram Mollaiy-Berneti

Young Researchers and Elites Club, Bandar Abbas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bandar Abbas, Iran

Abstract:An important problem in demand planning for energy consumption is developing an accurate energy forecasting model. In fact, it is not possible to allocate the energy resources in an optimal manner without having accurate demand value. A new energy forecasting model was proposed based on the back-propagation (BP) type neural network and imperialist competitive algorithm. The proposed method offers the advantage of local search ability of BP technique and global search ability of imperialist competitive algorithm. Two types of empirical data regarding the energy demand (gross domestic product (GDP), population, import, export and energy demand) in Turkey from 1979 to 2005 and electricity demand (population, GDP, total revenue from exporting industrial products and electricity consumption) in Thailand from 1986 to 2010 were investigated to demonstrate the applicability and merits of the present method. The performance of the proposed model is found to be better than that of conventional back-propagation neural network with low mean absolute error.

 

Key words: energy demand; artificial neural network; back-propagation algorithm; imperialist competitive algorithm

中南大学学报(自然科学版)
  ISSN 1672-7207
CN 43-1426/N
ZDXZAC
中南大学学报(英文版)
  ISSN 2095-2899
CN 43-1516/TB
JCSTFT
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